My Soccer Bets - ICC-CAB

[ICC-CAB]

Hello all, thank you for hosting me. Im glad to be here.

I am an American, so I will not tolerate such wording as tables, fixtures, and all that other sort of stuff in here. This is the land of the free and the home of the brave. We deal in schedules and lineups.

My intent here is to do nothing more than victory dance around the forums while tossing money from the highest of ivory towers that the internet-land features. As of now, there are 15 available seats in on my bandwagon. The cushions are nice. Have a seat. Once I select my 15 riders, these doors will be locked to everyone else. You can still come in the thread and read the picks, but there will be no champagne or strippers for anyone else. Sorry, only so much of the good stuff to go around. You dig? Now is the time that I leave. Ill be back in a couple hours. Maybe a day. To post my picks. Until then, get in line and be quiet. Thank you for your understanding and patience.

I post in Book Antique because it is elegant. Deal.

 

[ICC-CAB]

Crystal Palace TTO.5 Goals +115 ($100 ---> $115) - Speed on the edge gives Chelsea fits. Zaha gave their slower backs a tough time when they played last time. I expect more of the same this time. With Hazard down, and possibly Costa after his issues during the international break, Im thinking Conte will move forward with Cesc instead of Matic. Conte doesn't exactly catch me as the type of coach that will park the bus in this situation either. Palace has scored in their last 3 EPL games, and they have Benteke in good form coming off his international showing. Time away for this defensive unit could provide a couple holes, especially early. Palace pushes one through here.

More to come....

 

[ICC-CAB]

Hull City +150 to win ($100 ---> $150) - What a wonderful spot for Hull here. Desperate team. At home. Marco Silva with over a week to prepare. A West Ham defense that just cannot figure out everything with Fonte being added. Emotional return of Dawson. Since Snodgrass came around, West Ham isnt scoring unless it is something in the air to Carroll or Antonio. Looks like Antonio is out, so Im guessing Carroll get a full dose of both Dawson and McGuire. I cannot see Silva taking McGuire out of the line-up with the Dawson return. Especially after getting snubbed for Gibson with the national team. The kids is a good finish to the season away from netting them $20M on the open market. Ive got Hull leading most the way and tacking on a late one for a 2-0 win.

 

[ICC-CAB]

Swansea City -.5 +100 ($100 ---> $100) - Two bad losses on the road prior to the international break really guarantees that Clement had his boys attention while getting ready. Olsson and Naughton are both back for Swansea, so I am anticipating them to come out of the defensive shell they tried to employ in both their losses to Bournmouth and Hull City. While I will pass off the Bournmouth loss to an unprepared team ready for break, the Hull City road defeat isnt exactly the most shameful. Since Silva became manager, they have put up tough fights against some of the better opposition that they have faced. I do expect Swansea to return to the same form at home that allowed them to net 3 against a tough Burnley squad. Boro has really struggled to net anything on the road this year, and I don't see that changing here.

 

[ICC-CAB]

Burnley FC & Tottenham Hotspurs TIE +280 ($50 ---> $140)
Burnley FC to win +475 ($50 ---> $237.50)

Nobody has been better than Burnley at home this year, and I think that we have Tottenham a little over-valued at the moment coming off their win against Southampton. The loss of Harry Kane will reveal itself at some point and I think a well coached team playing in front of a wild home crowd might do that here. Away from home, Tottenham just doesn't have the same press that they do White Hart Lane. Tough spot for a Tottenham with both Eriksen and Alli both logging significant time in the WCQ and now trying to travel back and play 90 minutes of pressing soccer. I think Burnley grinds out a tight one here.

 

[ICC-CAB]

Liverpool & Everton O2.5 -130 ($130 ---> $100) - Both teams took rough blows over the international break, but I think it sets up rather well for a high scoring game in the local derby. Without Henderson and Llana, Liverpool is going to struggle to control the ball in the midfield. Henderson is the number 4 tackler in the EPL, and I expect them to struggle a bit trying to figure out how they want to operate without them both. Everton is typically a 50% possession team and that is the kind of team that Liverpool's offense preys on. Its the Burnley, Hull City, and other low possession teams that sit back and give Liverpool a tough time. For Everton, this weekends best defense is going to have to be their offense. They were crushed with huge injuries over the break and that defense is a freaking mess trying to get this all worked out. Taking 1 point by sitting back does NOTHING for Everton at this point in the season in chasing the top 4. With United, Chelsea, Arsenal, and in-form Leicester all coming up in the next couple months, Everton is going to need as many 3s as they can to make up the 6.

 

[ICC-CAB]

Final Card:
Liverpool & Everton O2.5 -130 ($130 ---> $100)
Burnley FC & Tottenham Hotspurs TIE +280 ($50 ---> $140)
Burnley FC to win +475 ($50 ---> $237.50)
Swansea City -.5 +100 ($100 ---> $100)
Hull City +150 to win ($100 ---> $150)
Crystal Palace TTO.5 Goals +115 ($100 ---> $115)

 

[ICC-CAB]

AT THE BAR PLAY:
Atlanta United TTO1 +100 ($100 ---> $100) - Overreaction to Josef. I could have scored a couple of those. This team is an offensive juggernaut.

 

[ICC-CAB]

MLS Record: 0-1-0 (-$100)
EPL Record: 0-0-0

 

[HugeUnderdog]

Do you accept "cheers" ?

 

[AlistairCookie]

Not a bad start buddy. I'll come for the writeups no matter what your record will be a bonus.

 

[ICC-CAB]

Thanks for the kind words fellas, still some work to do with Swansea!

Heading to the bar, dumb MLS shit coming!

 

[ICC-CAB]

AT THE BAR PLAY:
Minnesota United & Real Salt Lake O3 -110 ($110 ---> $100)
I know Minnesota made that dumb lopsided trade to fix their defense in the short term, but it's just putting lipstick on a pig. Too many holes back there to fix on yr fly. Maybe in a month, but not today. All indicatioms are that Molino and Ramirez go for the Lions too today. 6 goals in 3 games is really overshadowed by the fact they have given up 114. Real made a move with their manager to be more offensive, so we get that short term boost from and otherwise shitty team. 3-2 someone.

 

[ICC-CAB]

MLS Record: 1-1-0 (+$0)
EPL Record: 3-2-0 (+165)

Should have won Swansea, tough results.

 

[ICC-CAB]

AT THE BAR PLAY:
Portland Timbers -130 ($130 ---> $100)
One beer in and I'm already itching to get some MLS action on the card. Looking at the total, getting +juice on the O3 is begging for action. Portland has been scoring like crazy; and Columbus showed last week that their defense can be pushed with pressure. Couple issues here. First, New England has one goal in games that were not against that sieve from Minnesota. Secomd, Portland will welcome back Guzman. Nagbe is the international name that people will point to, but Guzman's ability to protect that weak back line is what hurt them most against Columbus. Portland at home is just a better spot to play.

 

[ICC-CAB]

MLS Record: 1-2-0 (-$130)
EPL Record: 3-2-0 (+165)
​

 

[ICC-CAB]

Well, the EPL went well last week. I thought I even deserved better results than I got. Swansea left it on the table. Bummer. Then, I pissed away everything on the MLS. I don't know why I keep fucking with that league. Maybe it is because its on TV in the evening and I have a gambling problem. Welp, yes, that is it. Anyways, I digress. Here are my opening thoughts BEFORE I look at the lines. I try and establish my thoughts before peaking in on what the odds are.

Burnley-Stoke: Burnley laid a real egg last week, but I don't see it happening again. My concern here is that their offense is just dreadful. I could very well see these two teams just pound on each other all day and walk away with a draw. As much as I would love to, I don't see myself chasing the $ I lost on Burnley. If I can get one of them Unders at +money sitting around 1.5 though, it might be enough to bite.

Leceister-Sunderland: Without Wes Morgan, I am immediately thinking about a play on the Over here. Im hoping to get it right around 2. 2.5 with +money could be tempting, but this one should have some goals in it. Tired legs produce a little more open of a game. My major concern is where Sunderland is going to find some offense if LC gets out in front early. Leceister -1 could be tempting, but I cannot do the 1.5 on this one.

Watford-West Brom: Watford. Watford. Watford.

Manchester United - Everton: This one is going over. Ill play this sucker all the way up to 3. This is the type of defense that Everton can actually do some work against and I like how the depleted Everton defense and ElbowTurd match-up. This is one that I will be looking at closely.

Chelsea - Manchester City: Anyone that has watched Chelsea this year knows that they cannot defend space and speed in their back third. Manchester City poses exactly that. Ive got City going in and getting at least a point here. Im hoping that we get that bullshit O.5 goal line again. City is going to score, I have no doubts in my mind. The Chelsea train is about to full fall off the track.

Swansea - Tottenham: Swansea. They couldn't finish their opportunities on the weekend, but Swansea looked great in the attacking half. I thought their movement was fantastic. Tottenham also played well, but I am looking at this as an opportunity for them to come up short. They don't play as well on the road normally, and a short week like this might be the spot for them to fall flat. As long as the Swansea defenders are playing, I like their chances to challenge the wing-backs for Tottenham. +300 or more, and I will be rolling the dice.

Hull City - Middlesborough: Hull City. Better coach, better team. Dawson definitely will play, this one is circled.

Southampton - Crystal Palace: Southampton to win. Crystal Palace is over-valued and they still have major issues until they are playing a team that cannot figure out how to handle the pace. I like the solid Southampton team against them at home, but without their star striker, I worry about where the goals will come. Might be a 0-0 game, but there will be too much value to pass up on with Southampton, in my eyes.

Liverpool - Bournemouth: Open games are where Liverpool thrives. Bournmouth is like 4th in the league in possession and that sort of shit is going to kill them here. I actually like the Over, because I think King will get one or two against that defense towards the end. Im assuming Liverpool will be -1.5, and I think there is more value on the Over in this game. All the way up to 3.

Arsenal - West Ham: Over. Over. Over. Over.

 

[ICC-CAB]

Manchester United TTO1.5 +100 ($100 ---> $100) - Everton is still a mess on defense with those injuries from the international break, and I don't think we got a real fair evaluation of the state of Manchester United's current attack in their draw with WBA. They had plenty of opportunities and actually moved the ball very well. The problem was, there wasnt anyone to finish. We have some huge mismatches in the midfield with Barkley struggling so bad to find his form and Pogba returning from injury. I think the loss of Mata is actually a net+ for this MU team and it forces them to play some faster players against an inexperienced Everton back line. Ibra will get one or two today and I think Rashford breaks through if he gets in the starting 11. Otherwise, I will look for a goal on a set-piece with some confusion on the back end of Everton.

 

[ICC-CAB]

Leceister City -1 -140 ($140 ---> $100) - Sunderland needed the last one, they flopped. Dafoe is hobbled. LC is cruising. Even without Morgan, they played well since Shakepeare came on board. Ive got this one 2-0 or 3-0. Sunderland is dead in the water....

 

[AlistairCookie]

I've got Leicester 1st half and -1.5 +145 FT -- here's to a great day.